Saturday, 9 March 2013

UHURU KENYATTA NARROWLY WINS KENYA'S POLLS: ARE THERE ANY LESSONS LEARNT FOR ZIMBABWE ?



Uhuru Kenyatta casts his ballot

Uhuru Kenyatta (51) won Kenya;s electoral polls by narrowly beating his rival Raila Odinga (68). Kenyatta garnered 6,173,433 (50.07%) compared to main rival Raila's 5,340,546 (43,3%). Kenya, with an estimated population of 32 million people has 14, 352,533 registered voters of which 12,330,028 cast their votes representing an impressive 86% voter turnout, which represents about 38,5% of the overall population. Uhuru has since been confirmed as President Elect for Kenya despite protestations from Raila who queried the electoral process before and during the count. The process surprisingly witnessed peaceful protests in stark contrast to horrific incidences of ethnic violence which marred the previous elections which culminated in a transitional government. Poll Observers and the EU have endorsed the polls as a success and peaceful. US Secretary of State John Kerry has since hailed the Kenyan people for conducting a peaceful poll. 


Lessons emerging from the Kenyan election appears to indicate that the Kenyan people have shown a high degree of voter awareness and responsiveness to exercising their right to vote with a record 86% voter turnout. In Zimbabwe's instance for the 2008 elections, the estimated population then was 12,754,378 with about 5,5m registered voters. In the 2008 March elections, Tsvangirai polled 1,195,562 votes against Mugabe's 1,079,730 while in the June elections, Tsvangirai got a paltry 233 000 votes compared to Mugabe's 2,150,269 votes. This  accounted for about 41,4% of the registered voters which represented approximately 18,7% of the overall population. It is critical to encourage more people to register as voters and to intensify voter education so that more people exercise their right to vote on Polling Day. The ability to attract large crowds at campaign rallies will not necessarily translate to an electoral landslide victory and may instead instil a complacency and a false sense of popularity. 

Raila Odinga casting his ballot.

What maybe also be emerging is that perhaps it may be "unafrican" to concede defeat or let alone congratulate the winning candidate, a prerequisite for respecting the will of the people. Despite endorsements of a peaceful electoral outcome, losing rival Raila Odinga refused to concede defeat and has vowed to contest the results through the courts claiming electoral fraud and irregularities. The Kenyan people however, appear determined to avoid a repeat of the violent aftermath of the disputed 2007 elections, which claimed the lives of more 1200 people through ethnic violence that spread across the country. The ability to absorb pressure from party supporters in the face of defeat is the other lesson. Raila Odinga’s victory starved supporters in the Nairobi slums of Kibera and Mathare had expressed bitterness, declaring lack of confidence in Kenyan authorities including the Electoral Commission. Odinga however urged his supporters to refrain from taking to the streets and instead opting to pursue the matter via the courts. 

The aftermath of pressure emerging from pledges with external players as electoral underwriters and perceived manipulation and influence from the West. Raila's strong links with the West may have also made him pay dearly in the electoral polls. Raila Odinga, popularly known to Kenyans as Agwambo, the son of the first Vice President of Kenya, Jaramogi Odinga is believed to be a first cousin of US President Barrack Obama, through Obama's father. The lesson is perhaps to have the ability to assess the degree of sensitivity arising from links with the US and other EU countries. There is also an emerging tradition of taking "as personal spite", results of an electoral outcome including the tendency of assuming this result as an outright rejection by the people rather than appreciate that one's ideologies or electoral strategy is the direct cause of one's failure to gain trust and reliability from the electorate. Kenya has also evolved a new leaf and chapter of less violent polls in the history of its politics and this is an opportunity for its political leaders to be selfless and seek to unite its people. 


The Kenyan people collectively and regardless of political or ethnic persuasion should come first and this juncture should see the entire nation embracing each other as one. This also puts demands on Uhuru to put aside differences and honour political pledges that the Kenyan people are yearning for. Uhuru needs to extend a gesture to Raila and accord him due respect as an alternative political voice that will bring checks and balances to the new govt!! Its no longer a contest but an obligation to value the electoral pledges and transform the lives of the Kenyan people to economic prosperity, peace and better standards of living. As Zimbabweans, there is a lesson learnt on the benefits of seeing through an electoral process free of violence and political intimidation and how this translates to a smooth process of peace and tranquility. After all, its only an electoral process which is an event, valuing our lives and relationships as a nation united by common links as a sovereign nation is paramount as opposed to giving preference to our political persuasions and gravity of external influence.

The focus has now shifted towards cash-strapped Zimbabwe tasked with the undaunting challenge of holding the Constitution referendum on March 16, followed by the parliamentary and presidential polls thereafter. The process is hinged on the sanctions debacle, lack of resources to fund the exercises and political banter. The run-up to the referendum has been calmer due to consensus from the main rival parties, ZPF and MDC-T, for a "Yes" vote to approve the proposed draft constitution. There has been incidences of police high handedness to reign in civil society groups and isolated reports of unsubstantiated politically motivated violence, a characteristic of anticipated events in the run up to elections due to tempers fanned by heights of political tension.

Monday, 22 October 2012

NO AFRICAN PRESIDENT DESERVED TO WIN THE US$5m LEADERSHIP PRIZE FOR 2012: MO IBRAHIM FOUNDATION PANEL !!WHY?


NO AFRICAN PRESIDENT DESERVED TO WIN THE US$5m LEADERSHIP PRIZE FOR 2012: MO IBRAHIM FOUNDATION PANEL




I tend to disagree with the decision made by the Mo Ibrahim Foundation panel that no African president deserved to win the coveted $5m worth leadership prize in 2012. entirely. The prize should have been given to the new President of Malawi Joyce Banda, in recognition firstly, to the people of Malawi in being selfless and allowing a smooth power transition following the untimely death of the incumbent, Bingu wa Mutharika. 


Secondly, the new President has stirred Malawi towards a new path that is redefining a new era and governance ethos based own reconnecting with the generality of the Malawian people and the regaining the confidence and support of Multi-lateral Institutions including the global communit. She has reformed structures of governance which has attracted confidence of the International Institutions and created a conducive environment to attract foreign investment and development assistance. In May this year Britain pledged £23m to help stabilise the Malawian economy and £10m for the country's health system and bi-laterally negotiated and persuaded Zimbabwe to repay in kind, a long outstanding debt of US$17m.

The zero tolerance to corruption and opulent life-style for Politicians and Senior figures has set Malawi on a path deserving this leadership prize. Joyce Banda introduced a controversial decision to either sell or lease the impoverished country's £8.4m presidential jet and fleet of 60 Mercedes government cars and instead apply the proceeds from the sale towards provision of basic services to Malawi's poorest in urgent need of relief following massive devaluation of the Malawian Kwacha by one third on the advice of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The measures were necessary to cushion Malawi from the effects of wild-cat public sector strikes due to poor salaries and conditions of service including student demostrations. She has managed to stabilise constitutional crisis in Parliament following a charade of defections between the Democratic People's Party (DPP) and the People's Party (PP) which she formed in 2009 when she was expelled from the DPP. 

Malawi, one of the world’s poorest countries, has faced growing macroeconomic management challenges for several years. In 2010, Malawi secured an Extended Credit Facility (ECF) from the IMF and the government adjusted fiscal and economic policy accordingly, but was unable to meet the IMF targets set at end-December 2010 and June 2011. Further measures taken failed to remedy the failings and donor countries suspended budget support. 

In 2012, under Joyce Banda's direction, the new administration moved swiftly to devalue the kwacha, adopt a flexible exchange rate regime and liberalize current account transactions to address the country's chronic balance of payment problems and improve the outlook for poverty reduction and growth, leading to the approval in June 2012, of a new three-year IMF funding support under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) amounting to about US$ 156.2 million. This funding is boosting real GDP growth from 4.3 percent in 2012 to at least 6½ percent per year from 2015.This will lead to the scaling up of social protection programs to mitigate the adverse impact of adjustment measures on the most vulnerable segments of the Malawian people.

In conclusion, given the optimistic global economic climate resulting from the global financial crisis and the challenges of its effects in the Eurozone, the dramatic about turn in Malawi and pace of economic reforms cannot go unnoticed, I rest my case...hear hear hear!!!!! 

Josh Chigwangwa is an Independent Researcher and holds a BA (Hons) Admin degree from Hertfordshire University, a Public Sector Accounting Diploma from Harare Polytechnic College and more than 10 yrs Public Sector experience in Zimbabwe. Contactable on jmchigwangwa@hotmail.com

Tuesday, 21 August 2012

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